Monthly Report: Antimony Prices Eased Slightly in September—With Both Antimony And Bromine Prices at Record Highs, How Much Longer Can Flame Retardants Hold Out?

Monthly Report: Antimony Prices Eased Slightly in September

—With Both Antimony and Bromine Prices at Record Highs, How Much Longer Can Flame Retardants Hold Out?

I. Review of Antimony Trioxide Price Trends in September 2026

In September 2026, the domestic antimony trioxide market price generally followed a pattern of “stability followed by a decline,” though the decline was relatively modest, and the market price level shifted slightly downward compared to August. Taking the 99.5% Sb grade as an example, from September 1 to September 16, the market price stabilized in the range of 85,000–86,000 yuan per metric ton, remaining at a relatively high monthly level of 86,000 yuan per metric ton from September 10 to September 16; Starting on September 17, prices fell slightly to 85,000 yuan per metric ton and remained at that level for most subsequent trading days; after dipping further to 85,000 yuan per metric ton on September 21, prices remained largely stable at 84,000 yuan per metric ton from September 22 through September 30. The price trend for the 99.8% Sb grade followed a similar pattern: it remained between 92,000 and 93,000 yuan per metric ton from September 1 to September 16, reached a monthly high of 93,000 yuan per metric ton on September 16, and then gradually declined to 91,000 yuan per metric ton on September 30. 

In terms of monthly average prices, the average price for 99.5% Sb antimony trioxide in September was approximately 84,833 yuan per metric ton, while the average price for 99.8% Sb was approximately 91,833 yuan per metric ton. Overall, price fluctuations in September were modest, but a mild decline of approximately 2,000 yuan per metric ton was observed from the beginning to the end of the month. This reflects that, despite the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October,” actual demand fell short of expectations, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for prices.

II. Key Factors Affecting Price Changes in September

1. Supply Side: Imports of raw materials continued to contract, but this has not yet provided strong support in the short term.

In August 2026, China’s imports of other antimony ores and concentrates totaled 4,384.126 metric tons, down 18.83% month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Among these, Russia surged to become the largest source country with 2,808.951 metric tons, accounting for 64.07% of total imports, while the shares of traditional source countries such as Myanmar and Bolivia contracted significantly. Although the continued decline in raw material imports confirms expectations of tightening supply, domestic smelters still have sufficient inventory from earlier periods to draw upon, and the estimated cost of purchased ore is around 80,000–100,000 yuan per metric ton of metal. Consequently, the support for antimony prices is more a matter of “providing a floor” rather than “driving up prices.”

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe announced in September an immediate ban on antimony and tungsten exports, aligning with the resource nationalism policies of African countries such as Guinea, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, according to available data, the direct impact of this ban on domestic raw material supply is limited, amounting to approximately 100 metric tons of metal—a relatively small proportion. The market is more concerned about the risk of such policies spreading as a trend, as well as the pace at which additional raw materials will be released from mines following the end of the rainy season in Myanmar.

2. Demand Side: Seasonal Stockpiling Falls Short of Expectations; Downstream Purchases Primarily Driven by Essential Needs

September marks the traditional peak consumption season known as “Golden September and Silver October,” and the period leading up to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day “double holiday” stockpiling window. However, the actual pace of downstream procurement has not accelerated significantly and remains focused primarily on meeting essential needs. On the one hand, the upward momentum in antimony prices since August has clearly weakened, and downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high-priced resources; on the other hand, given the overall macroeconomic environment, pre-holiday procurement for other commodities has also been lackluster, with a strong sense of market caution prevailing. This stalemate—where smelters are reluctant to sell at low prices while downstream buyers resist high prices—has made it difficult for antimony prices to achieve a decisive breakout in either direction in September.

3. Exports: Antimony Oxide Exports Remain at Historic Lows, with Highly Concentrated Structure

In August 2026, China’s exports of antimony oxide totaled 170 metric tons, representing a month-over-month increase of 25.93% but a year-over-year decline of 14.14%, remaining within the range of historic lows. Export destinations were highly concentrated in Russia, with 100 metric tons exported to Russia in August, accounting for 58.82% of total exports. Looking at the cumulative data for January through August, antimonium oxide exports amounted to only 45.05% of the total for all of 2025, while exports of unwrought antimony have remained at zero for eight consecutive months. The strict constraints imposed by export control policies on strategic minerals continue to limit sales channels for antimony products. The persistent slump in exports has made domestic sales of antimony products increasingly reliant on domestic demand, further intensifying the supply-demand dynamics in the domestic market.

III. Impact on Downstream Flame Retardants and Flame-Retardant Materials

Antimony trioxide is a key synergist for brominated flame retardants, and fluctuations in its price directly affect the production costs and procurement strategies of downstream flame retardants and flame-retardant materials. Although antimony trioxide prices fell slightly in September, they remain at relatively high historical levels overall, continuing to place significant cost pressure on downstream enterprises.

Looking at the bromine market, bromine prices continued to strengthen in September, with mainstream transaction prices gradually rising from 37,000–37,500 yuan per metric ton at the beginning of the month to around 40,000 yuan per metric ton. As the core raw material for brominated flame retardants, the rise in bromine prices, combined with the persistently high prices of antimony trioxide, has created a compounding effect, keeping the overall cost of flame retardants at elevated levels. On the supply side, brine in the main bromine-producing regions has relatively low bromine concentrations, making it difficult for the industry to significantly increase operating rates. With inventories generally at low levels, manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strongly committed to maintaining prices. On the demand side, downstream users of bromine-based flame retardants are maintaining inventory replenishment at a level necessary to meet immediate needs, while orders for pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates are primarily limited to small batches, with noticeable reluctance to purchase at current high prices.

For manufacturers of flame-retardant materials, the dual high costs of antimony trioxide and bromine are squeezing profit margins. Some companies have been forced to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on a per-order basis and reducing inventory” to mitigate the risks of price volatility. At the same time, because end-user sectors (such as electronics, electrical appliances, and building insulation materials) have limited capacity to absorb cost increases, flame-retardant material manufacturers find it difficult to fully pass on costs to downstream buyers, and their profit margins remain under sustained pressure.

IV. Market Trend Outlook for October 2026

Looking ahead to October 2026, the antimony trioxide market is highly likely to continue its stalemate, with prices struggling to rise or fall. However, attention should be paid to the following key variables:

On the supply side, the pace at which additional raw materials from Myanmar’s mines are released following the end of the rainy season is the key point of observation. If imports of Myanmar ore show a significant rebound in October, it will alleviate expectations of domestic raw material shortages and exert some downward pressure on antimony prices; conversely, if the recovery of Myanmar ore supply falls short of expectations, coupled with ongoing uncertainty regarding Russian shipments arriving at port, support from the raw material side will remain intact.

On the demand side, the pace of downstream restocking after the National Day holiday and the realization of peak “Silver October” demand warrant attention. Judging by September’s performance, pre-holiday stockpiling was relatively weak; if actual orders in October still show no improvement, upward momentum for antimony prices will be further constrained. Additionally, the pace at which coordinated production cuts and cold repairs in the photovoltaic glass sector are implemented will also affect demand expectations for antimony-based products such as sodium stannate.

On the policy front, whether export bans in African countries such as Zimbabwe will spread into a broader trend, and whether domestic export control policies for strategic minerals will undergo further adjustments, remain key variables influencing market sentiment. Preliminary data from early October shows that the price of 99.5% Sb antimony trioxide stood at 84,000 yuan per metric ton on October 8 and fell further to 82,000 yuan per metric ton on October 9, indicating a weak market opening after the holiday, with the price center continuing to edge down slightly compared to the end of September. The price of 99.8% Sb also retreated from 91,000 yuan per metric ton on October 8 to 89,000 yuan per metric ton on October 9.

Overall, antimony trioxide prices in October are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with raw material costs providing support on the downside and weak demand exerting downward pressure on the upside; the price center may shift slightly lower compared to September. It is recommended to pay close attention to the pace of downstream restocking in the middle of the month, the resumption of supply from Myanmar mines, and the ongoing impact of August’s customs import and export data.