Weekly PVC Market Review (May 26 - May 30, 2025)

Weekly PVC Market Review (May 26 - May 30, 2025)

Key Points This Week

This week, the PVC market has shown significant dynamics. In terms of production, PVC output by manufacturers increased by 2.63% week-on-week, with the capacity utilization rate reaching 78.19%, up by 2.00% from the previous week. Regarding inventory, this week's third-party PVC inventory stood at 597,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.12% and a year-on-year drop of 32.78%. Both manufacturers' and third-party warehouse inventories, based on the new sample, have declined. In terms of pricing, as of May 29, calcium carbide-based PVC in East China was mainly at 4,650 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC was at 5,000 yuan/ton. The domestic spot PVC market prices have seen a weak downward shift in their center of gravity, with price changes occurring across various regions. Looking ahead to next week, it is anticipated that PVC operations will slightly increase, leading to a rise in overall supply. However, demand remains weak. In terms of cost support, the cost support for calcium carbide-based PVC has loosened, while ethylene-based PVC maintains bottom-line support. Market prices are expected to continue on a weak trend. The price of calcium carbide-based PVC for Type Five in East China is expected to fluctuate between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan/ton.

Market Analysis This Week

This week, the domestic spot PVC market prices have seen a weak downward shift in their center of gravity, with terminals and the market showing a trend of buying at lower prices.

In terms of production and sales dynamics, this week's PVC output reached 454,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.63%, with the capacity utilization rate of manufacturers reaching 78.19%. Manufacturers' inventories have declined week-on-week, and the new third-party inventory sample stood at 597,600 tons, down by 4.12% week-on-week and 32.78% year-on-year. Manufacturers' pre-sale orders have also dropped week-on-week, as have inventories.

Considering all factors, it is expected that market prices will continue to trend weakly next week. The price of calcium carbide-based PVC for Type Five in East China is anticipated to fluctuate between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan/ton.

Market Impact Factors

Domestically, the downstream sector is experiencing a traditional off-season and is being affected by weather conditions, resulting in weak operations and limited demand for PVC. In India, the rainy season and rising shipping fees have weakened export market expectations. The policy changes of the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in June need to be closely monitored.

On the cost front, the cost support for calcium carbide-based PVC has loosened, while ethylene-based PVC maintains bottom-line support. This week, PVC manufacturers have increased output week-on-week, with the capacity utilization rate reaching 78.19%. Inventories have declined week-on-week. The domestic third-party PVC inventory has decreased by 4.12% week-on-week and by 32.78% year-on-year. Manufacturers' pre-sale orders have also dropped week-on-week.

The domestic spot PVC market prices have shown a weak downward trend, with transaction prices continuously declining. Rising international oil prices have led to changes in the prices of calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based PVC in the Changzhou market. Overall, it is expected that market prices will continue to trend weakly next week, with the price of calcium carbide-based PVC for Type Five in East China anticipated to fluctuate between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan/ton.

Next Week's Market Forecast

Next week, the PVC market is expected to see increased supply but limited demand, resulting in weak prices. On the supply side, it is anticipated that operations will slightly increase, leading to a rise in overall supply as upstream supply gradually recovers. On the demand side, domestic downstream operations remain weak, with the off-season and weather factors suppressing demand. Both domestic and international downstream sectors are facing the arrival of the rainy season, causing some industries to slow down in demand. In terms of exports, the Indian rainy season, coupled with rising shipping fees, has led to poor export expectations. The policy changes of the BIS in June need to be closely watched. In terms of costs, the cost support for calcium carbide-based PVC has loosened, while ethylene-based PVC maintains bottom-line support. Under the combined influence of these factors, it is expected that domestic PVC market prices will trend weakly next week. Prices are anticipated to first decline with fluctuations and then stabilize. The price of calcium carbide-based PVC for Type Five in East China is expected to fluctuate between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan/ton.