Bromine Monthly Report (2025 - 04)

Bromine Monthly Report (2025 - 04)

Review of the Current Period

Bromine production in this period reached 5,010 tons, marking a 5.69% increase from the previous period (approximately 4,740 tons). The start - up rate rose by 4.26%, and the capacity utilization rate stood at 34.89% (compared to around 30.63% in the last period). The import volume in the last period was 6,211 tons, with an average import price of about $2,407 per ton. In the next period, production is expected to increase to around 6,000 tons, representing a 19.76% rise from the current estimate. The plant capacity utilization rate is projected to increase to approximately 42%, up 7.11% from the current estimate.

In April, the average monthly price of bromine was 33,358 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price at 24,000 yuan / ton, representing an increase of 14,000 yuan. In March 2025, the average import price stood at 2,436 U.S. dollars / ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous year. In April, raw material prices experienced a narrow consolidation, resulting in overall stable bromine production costs.

In May, bromine factories are expected to increase production, leading to a slight rise in spot supply and a rapid increase in inventory. April saw low bromine demand, with downstream procurement remaining flat and primarily driven by just - in - time demand and resistance to high prices. In May, demand is expected to remain stable, mainly supported by just - in - time demand for medical and pesticide intermediates, with an anticipated increase in demand.

Cost

The main raw materials for bromine are sulfuric acid, liquid chlorine, and sulfur. In Shandong, the average price of 98% smelting acid in March was 0.0492 million yuan / ton, rising to 0.0527 million yuan / ton in April, a sequential increase of 54.72% and a year - on - year increase of 189.41%. In April, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 0.005 million yuan / ton, while in Jiangsu it was approximately - 0.01 million yuan / ton, a sequential increase of 73%. The average price of solid sulfur in Shandong in April was 0.2435 million yuan / ton, and in the second half of the month, the price in Puguang Wanzhou was 0.235 million yuan / ton, a year - on - year increase of 42.31% and a sequential increase of 153.65%.

In April, bromine prices initially rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, tight supply led to price increases. However, in the mid - month, prices faced pressure due to downstream boycotts, increased production, and rising imports. By the end of the month, traders' panic - driven shipments caused prices to plummet. Throughout the month, downstream procurement remained flat, primarily driven by just - in - time demand. In May, bromine plants and seawater bromine are expected to increase imports to Hong Kong. With downstream demand remaining flat and supply exceeding demand, prices are anticipated to decline. Downstream demand will be influenced by the supply - and - demand game surrounding imports. Additionally, environmental inspections, maintenance at factories, and import delays will impact the market. In the next period, bromine costs are expected to remain stable, as raw material prices in April experienced a narrow consolidation, resulting in overall stable production costs.

Supply

The bromine capacity utilization rate increased from 30.63% to 34.89% in this period, a sequential rise of 4.26% but an 11% year - on - year decrease. It is projected to increase to around 42% in May. In April, domestic bromine production stood at 5,010 tons, a sequential increase of 5.69% but a year - on - year decrease of 23.96%. Production is expected to rise in May. When the plant capacity utilization rate reaches around 42%, output may reach approximately 6,000 tons. In May, bromine plants are expected to boost production, accelerate output growth, and continue to increase inventory. The capacity for this period is approximately 6,000 tons. As there is no mention of plant maintenance in the information, no company is currently entering maintenance, and production will not decrease as a result. The start - up rate in this period increased by 4.26%, mainly due to rising temperatures that favor production. It is expected that due to the warming weather, the domestic bromine plant capacity utilization rate will increase to around 42% in May.

Demand

The reasons for the changes in demand are as follows: Domestic demand is insufficient, and downstream procurement is primarily driven by just - in - time needs. For example, the demand from the TBBPA industry did not improve during the month. Market price cuts continue to be announced, and in the mid - month, downstream resistance to high prices emerged. By the end of the month, traders' panic - driven low - price shipments were met with collective downstream boycotts. In May, downstream demand, influenced by imports, is expected to remain primarily driven by just - in - time needs, with imported resources supplementing the supply - and - demand game. Meanwhile, as the weather warms, seawater bromine production is expected to increase, leading to a growth in supply. The main downstream demand for flame retardants is likely to remain flat, but manufacturers' supply is gradually increasing, along with rising imports. This will result in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, accelerating inventory growth for manufacturers and negatively impacting shipments. Demand fluctuation forecast for the next period: In May, as the weather warms, downstream medical and pesticide intermediates' just - in - time demand is expected to remain stable. With flame retardants successively starting up, demand is likely to increase. However, procurement in April was flat, mainly driven by just - in - time demand, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year. In May, downstream medical and pesticide intermediates' just - in - time demand is expected to see some increase, but the overall boost is not significant. Compared to the previous period and the same period last year, there will be growth, but the supply - and - demand imbalance is likely to persist. In April, market demand was sluggish, with prices first rising and then falling. In May, market demand is expected to stabilize, and mainstream prices are anticipated to remain stable.

Forecast

In May, it is expected that manufacturers' production and start - up rates will rise, with output increasing to around 6,000 tons and the domestic bromine plant capacity utilization rate reaching approximately 42%. Raw material prices are likely to experience a narrow consolidation, resulting in overall stable bromine production costs. However, the cost support from brine bromine is expected to be limited.

In early May, bromine prices still have some downward space, and prices are anticipated to rationally decline in May. As production growth accelerates and inventory continues to rise, a combination of factors such as downstream resistance to high prices, increased production and imports, and flat demand may lead to a fall in market prices. The bromine market in April saw a rise followed by a fall, and in May, there is an overall possibility of a slight downward trend.

As bromine prices are expected to decline in May and inventory increases, prices may experience a slight downward movement under the supply - and - demand dynamics. Purchasers are advised to adopt a wait - and - see approach and monitor changes in imports and demand. Sellers can carefully consider the shipment pace based on inventory levels and market changes to prevent price fluctuations from affecting revenue. In May, bromine demand is expected to be primarily driven by just - in - time needs for medical and pesticide intermediates. Although demand is anticipated to increase, the overall boost is not significant, and the supply - and - demand imbalance is likely to continue.