Melamine Weekly Review: From Soaring Prices And Supply Disruptions To Price Crash, Nearly 20% Drop in A Week (April 17-23, 2026)

Melamine Weekly Review: From Soaring Prices and Supply Disruptions to Price Crash, Nearly 20% Drop in a Week (April 17-23, 2026)

Market Overview: Prices Plunge, Pessimism Spreads

Since April, melamine has experienced a rollercoaster ride. From early to mid-April, influenced by factors such as tight urea supply and unexpected shutdowns of some plants, melamine prices surged, reaching historical highs. Downstream nitrogen-based flame retardants (such as MCA) also saw price spikes and even shortages due to cost transmission. However, this week (April 17-23), the market outlook changed dramatically: with the concentrated resumption of production at previously shut-down plants in Shandong and Sichuan, spot supply suddenly eased, while domestic demand remained weak. Companies, pressured by inventory, drastically reduced prices to secure orders, leading to a precipitous price drop.

As of April 23, the mainstream ex-factory price of melamine produced using the atmospheric pressure process in China was around 6200-6500 yuan/ton, with the weekly average price falling from 7986 yuan/ton to 6405 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 19.8%. Prices in major producing areas such as East China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China generally fell by 1500-1625 yuan/ton, while prices in Northwest China have already fallen below the 6000 yuan mark.

This Week's Market Focus:

Supply Side: This week's melamine production was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 4.06% compared to last week. However, previously shut-down plants in Shandong and Sichuan have resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase to around 64% next week.

Raw Material Side: The domestic urea market continued its stable-firm trend. The mainstream ex-factory price of small-particle urea in eastern and central Sichuan was 840 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining unchanged compared to the previous week. Raw material costs have not eased significantly, but melamine prices have already plummeted.

Demand side: Domestic demand remained sluggish, with downstream users primarily replenishing their stocks for immediate needs, resulting in limited purchasing power. Customers who had previously hesitated due to high prices are now even more reluctant to purchase amidst the price decline.

This Week's Market Analysis: This week, the domestic melamine market price continued its sharp downward trend, with the decline intensifying. Manufacturers lowered their prices multiple times during the week, and some manufacturers had significant room for negotiation on actual orders. Low prices were frequently seen in the market, creating an overall chaotic atmosphere.

Table 1: Comparison of Domestic Regional Price Changes (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Looking at the details of market operations, although some plants in Shanxi Fengxi and Xinjiang Kekang experienced shutdowns during the week, the increase in supply from the resumption of previously shut-down plants in Shandong and Sichuan was more significant. Spot supply was relatively abundant, increasing the pressure on companies to ship goods and leading to a continuous accumulation of inventory. While some companies further expanded their profit margins, downstream buyers' "buy high, sell low" mentality resulted in sluggish new orders, and prices remained weak.

Market Influencing Factors Analysis

1. Supply Side: Both Shanxi Fengxi and Xinjiang Kekang experienced plant shutdowns during the week, but plants like Xinjiang Kekang are expected to resume production next week. It is anticipated that the industry's capacity utilization rate will increase to around 64% next week, further increasing supply pressure.

2. Demand Side: Domestic demand remained weak, with downstream users only maintaining essential restocking and limited purchasing power. Exports also showed no significant boost.

3. Raw Material Side: Urea prices remained stable at high levels, providing some support for melamine costs. However, the current market's dominant logic has shifted from cost-driven to supply-demand imbalance.

4. Downstream Flame Retardant Industry: The earlier surge in melamine prices led to soaring prices and tight supply of nitrogen-based flame retardants such as MCA. This week, with the price correction of melamine, the cost pressure on flame retardant companies is expected to gradually ease, but market sentiment remains cautious in the short term.

Market Forecast for Next Week

Looking ahead to next week, with the upcoming holiday, some companies still face inventory pressure and have a strong willingness to ship. Under the dual pressure of ample supply and weak demand, melamine prices are expected to have further room to decline. The mainstream transaction price may further decline to around 6000 yuan/ton. It is crucial to pay close attention to the operating status of enterprises and whether there is a marginal improvement in downstream purchasing sentiment.

For downstream nitrogen-based flame retardant companies, the inflection point in raw material costs has appeared, but it will still take time to digest the previously high-priced inventory. It is recommended to closely monitor the bottom range of melamine prices and replenish inventory as needed.