Weekly Report: Rigid Demand Support, Antimony Price Foundation Stable (March 6 - March 13)

Weekly Report: Rigid Demand Support, Antimony Price Foundation Stable (March 6 - March 13)

I. Market Overview

This week, overseas antimony. prices operated within the range of 24,000 to 27,000 USD/metric ton, showing signs of bottoming out and recovering compared to the previous period. The lowest and highest prices rebounded by 1,000 USD and 2,000 USD respectively. This stabilization and shift in sentiment were mainly supported by two factors. First, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $27 million investment in U.S. Antimony Corporation to strengthen its domestic antimony supply chain, directly boosting strategic demand expectations. Second, the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East potentially increased logistics, energy costs, and defense sector demand, injecting an uncertainty premium into the market. However, due to the rapid price correction last year, some holders have relatively high inventory costs, leading to a weak willingness to sell. They adopt a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating market prices to rise further towards their cost lines.

Domestically, the antimony market remained stable this week with no significant price changes. Most manufacturers and holders maintained flat quotations. The price for Antimony Ingot No. 1 was between 170,000 and 175,000 RMB/ton, and 99.8% Antimony Oxide was priced between 146,000 and 150,000 RMB/ton. Overall market transactions were light, with demand primarily consisting of rigid procurement. Transactions were concentrated in small-lot orders, and market news was relatively limited. Regarding the trading rhythm, inquiry activity was stronger in the first half of the week compared to the second half. Downstream buyers remained cautious, maintaining just-in-time procurement. Towards the weekend, the market continued its "high-level stalemate." Although prices remained firm, new transactions were limited, showing a characteristic of stable prices but low volumes. Supported by high raw material costs and tight spot supply, upstream players maintained a firm stance on pricing. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was insufficient, capping the upside potential. Overall, it is expected that antimony prices will maintain a stable to slightly strong pattern in the short term.

II. Highlights of Overseas Antimony Trade

According to Thailand's antimony trade data for January 2026 compiled by Shanghai Ganglian, raw material trade volume increased significantly during the month. Antimony raw material imports surged to 7,764 metric tons (physical tons), marking the second-highest point historically. Raw material exports also ranked second at 9,574 metric tons. Meanwhile, exports of antimony trioxide have increased month-on-month for four consecutive months, and exports to the U.S. have largely recovered.. Prices showed structural differences. The import unit price for antimony ingot in the Japanese market was as high as approximately 75,000 USD/ton, and antimony oxide reached 54,000 USD/ton, significantly higher than other markets. Overall, antimony oxide export prices stabilized at around 33,000 USD/ton. In contrast, antimony ingot export prices showed clear divergence, with monthly average prices lower than antimony oxide, ranging between 22,000 and 33,000 USD/ton. An important structural change occurred in the market: China's share in raw material export flows increased significantly to 62.1%, far exceeding countries like Myanmar. This change may corroborate that as the domestic and international price differential narrows, the focus of raw material inflows is returning to the Chinese market.

III. Partial Downstream Analysis

In the photovoltaics glass sector, statistics show that as of Thursday this week, the national daily melting capacity for photovoltaics glass was 89,360 tons. The market continues to operate weakly, facing the dual pressure of oversupply and weakening demand. On the supply side, leading enterprises continue to launch large-scale furnaces, intensifying market competition while further increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, it is the tail end of the rush to export before potential policy changes, with insufficient growth momentum. On the demand side, the market has entered the final phase of the pre-shipment rush, with weakening growth momentum. Downstream players are primarily consuming inventory built up before the Spring Festival, and actual offtake has fallen short of production output. Consequently, industry inventory continues to accumulate, reportedly exceeding a 40-day high, with some companies facing warehouse pressure. Simultaneously, international turmoil has pushed up domestic natural gas and fuel oil prices, significantly increasing corporate fuel and logistics costs and exacerbating losses. Looking at the supply-demand balance, the industry supply-demand gap reached as high as 700,000 tons in February. Even with a month-on-month demand recovery in March, a gap persists. High inventory levels are forcing some companies to plan or implement furnace cold repairs. Overall, against the backdrop of high costs, high inventory pressure, and weakening demand expectations, market competition will become increasingly fierce. Prices are more likely to face downward pressure, and cost pressures are expected to accelerate the phase-out of outdated production capacity. Achieving market supply-demand balance will still rely on further supply-side contraction.

In the bromine sector, the domestic bromine market showed a significant upward trend. On the supply side, industry operating rates continued to recover, with enterprise production gradually stabilizing. Spot supply in the market increased slowly, but overall enterprise inventory remained low. Due to the ongoing tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, holders strengthened their reluctance to sell, generally raising quotations significantly or temporarily refraining from quoting, adopting a strong wait-and-see attitude. On the demand side, performance was sluggish. Demand remained subdued, as downstream industries had a limited ability to absorb high-priced raw materials. Procurement was mostly limited to small-batch replenishment for essential needs, leading to slow actual transactions and weak trading activity. The game between supply and demand intensified. Mainstream transaction prices increased by approximately 5,500 RMB/ton to around 46,500 RMB/ton. Currently, actual transactions in the market are limited, with industry players still holding bullish expectations for the short-term outlook, resulting in a pervasive wait-and-see atmosphere.

In the ABS sector, domestic ABS market prices experienced significant volatility, showing a pattern of "initially rising, then falling, and then rising again." Early in the week, influenced by the US-Middle East-Iran situation, crude oil prices surged, driving a broad increase in commodity prices. Major producers like Lihuayi and PetroChina significantly raised their ex-factory quotations, fostering strong speculative buying sentiment and rapidly pushing prices higher. From Tuesday to Wednesday, as raw material prices corrected, market participants who had taken profits concentrated on selling, leading to a significant pullback in ABS prices. Approaching the weekend, styrene hitting the daily limit up once again bolstered the market, leading to offers being revised upward. Throughout the week, the market was dominated by geopolitical factors, raw material fluctuations, and macro sentiment, lacking rational consideration. Long-short games were intense, leaving participants mentally exhausted. Regarding prices, the average spot price for the period increased substantially, with a wide operating range between 12,300 and 17,000 RMB/ton. On the supply-demand front, a tight balance persisted during the period. The supply-demand gap remained positive and widened somewhat, supporting market sentiment. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the next period but overall remains tight. In the short term, raw material prices, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical situations remain the primary drivers influencing the market.

IV. Zhonglianjin Purchase, Sales, and Inventory Daily Data