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Views: 35 Author: Yinsu Flame Retardant Publish Time: 2026-09-07 Origin: www.flameretardantys.com
[Monthly Review of Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphorus-Containing Intermediates]:
Prices Showed an Overall Upward Trend (August 2026)
1. This Month’s Highlights
① This month, some yellow phosphorus producers in Guizhou reduced production due to environmental regulations, while a plant in Yunnan suspended operations due to an unexpected incident.
② Electricity costs declined during the rainy season, while raw material costs fluctuated within a narrow range.
③ On the demand side, both volume and prices for thermally produced phosphoric acid and tricalcium phosphate remained weak.
2. Analysis of Price Fluctuations in the Industry Chain This Month
Table 1: Summary of Domestic Yellow Phosphorus Upstream and Downstream Prices (Unit: Yuan/metric ton)
In August, the average monthly price of yellow phosphorus in the Southwest region was 27,528 yuan per metric ton, up 4% month-over-month and 22% year-over-year. In August, the yellow phosphorus market was guided by its own supply-and-demand fundamentals; the main downstream sectors—thermal phosphoric acid and trichloride—remained sluggish, with weak demand leading buyers to press for lower prices and adopt a wait-and-see approach, placing orders only as needed.
At the beginning of the month, some yellow phosphorus producers made slight adjustments to their suggested and tender prices. Combined with price pressure from downstream buyers, the market price center shifted downward moderately. Although producers faced sales pressure, they had no choice but to adjust prices to ensure daily sales volume. The mainstream price in Yunnan and Sichuan was around 27,100 yuan per metric ton (acceptance bill). Subsequently, the yellow phosphorus market showed signs of a price rally, with the mainstream price in Yunnan rising to 27,600 yuan per metric ton, while in Sichuan, prices ranged from 27,500 to 27,550 yuan per metric ton. A major producer in Guizhou set a tender price of 27,750 yuan per metric ton, split equally between cash and bank acceptance bills. Although some traders participated in the market, downstream industries remained reluctant to place orders for high-priced yellow phosphorus, and actual transaction activity slowed slightly. Prices in Yunnan and Sichuan subsequently returned to 27,500 yuan per metric ton. In the latter half of the month, yellow phosphorus experienced a series of price hikes, driven by factors such as expectations of downstream stockpiling demand at the end of the month and the beginning of the next. Traders actively participated in the market, boosting activity. Subsequently, as sulfur prices fell, the yellow phosphorus market faced pressure on both purchasing activity and market sentiment, resulting in a subdued atmosphere and a slight decline in price levels. By the close of trading, mainstream prices in Yunnan and Sichuan stood at 27,800 and 27,750 yuan per metric ton, respectively, while in Guizhou, the price was 28,000 yuan per metric ton (accepted).
Figure 1:Monthly Price Trend Chart for the Yellow Phosphorus Market, 2025–2026 (yuan/metric ton)
Regarding phosphorus trichloride prices in August, the market price of yellow phosphorus showed a volatile yet generally firm trend throughout the month. In the liquid chlorine market—taking Jiangsu’s liquid chlorine prices as an example—prices trended upward. The recommended prices and market prices of phosphorus trichloride manufacturers followed raw material costs, fluctuating upward; however, overall market demand remained relatively weak during the month, and it was common for companies to limit production or temporarily suspend operations to monitor market conditions. Production was determined based on sales, and raw material orders were placed on an as-needed basis to control inventory and profit risks. Some enterprises maintained prices by selling from low inventory levels, while downstream buyers pressed for lower prices and placed orders cautiously based on actual needs. During the month, the price range for phosphorus trichloride in Jiangsu was 6,900–7,050 yuan per metric ton, while the price range for phosphorus oxychloride was generally 6,600–6,750 yuan per metric ton.
Figure 2: Monthly Price Trend Chart for the Phosphorus Trichloride Market, 2025–2026 (yuan/metric ton)
Wet-Process Purified Phosphoric Acid: This month, the market for wet-process purified phosphoric acid remained under downward pressure. Some companies maintained stable listed prices while quietly lowering actual prices, resulting in a slight decline in the average transaction price. Demand remained sluggish, with no significant improvement in the pace of downstream procurement, and overall market activity was limited. Companies in the new energy sector remained largely cautious, limiting purchases to small orders for essential restocking, which had a limited impact on phosphoric acid consumption; overall demand support remained weak. On the supply side, production grew against the market trend, as new capacity in Hubei Province gradually entered trial production or ramped up operations, leading to a steady increase in market supply. This further exacerbated the already relatively loose supply-demand balance, exerting some downward pressure on market sentiment. On the cost front, raw material prices for phosphate rock remain firm at high levels, providing bottom-line support for phosphoric acid costs; however, sulfur prices have retreated somewhat this month. Coupled with continued demand weakness, there is insufficient upward momentum for prices, making it difficult for cost support to be effectively passed on to downstream sectors, and squeezing corporate profit margins from both ends. Overall, driven by the interplay of supply-demand dynamics and cost support, the wet-process purified phosphoric acid market is expected to continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term, with limited scope for price fluctuations.
Thermal Phosphoric Acid: The weak market trend for thermal phosphoric acid persisted this month, with no significant improvement in overall trading sentiment. Demand remained sluggish, as operating rates in traditional downstream sectors stayed at medium-to-low levels. Rigid consumption of phosphoric acid slowed noticeably, with procurement primarily consisting of small, demand-driven orders on a short-term basis, leaving extremely limited room for negotiation on new orders; orders from the new energy sector were also mainly driven by immediate needs, failing to generate effective upward momentum. On the supply side, although some enterprises have flexibly adjusted production to alleviate shipping pressure, social inventories are being drawn down slowly, and holders are becoming more willing to sell; there remains room for price adjustments in actual transaction negotiations. In terms of costs, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rebounded somewhat during the month, marginally strengthening cost support. However, under the pressure of persistently weak demand, downstream buyers have shown significant resistance to price increases, making it difficult for cost support to effectively translate into higher prices. The standoff between buyers and sellers has intensified, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails in the market. Overall, the thermal phosphoric acid market is expected to continue its pattern of a stalemate between upstream and downstream players and a weak consolidation in the short term, with future trends awaiting further guidance from the pace of recovery in downstream consumption.
Figure 3: Chart of Phosphate Market Price Trends in 2026 (yuan/metric ton)
3. Market Outlook
On the supply side, attention should be paid to the operational status of idled plants in Yunnan. Given that downstream sectors are expected to have stockpiling demand for yellow phosphorus ahead of the two major holidays in September, it is anticipated that most yellow phosphorus producers will maintain stable production schedules throughout the month.
On the demand side, attention should be paid to developments regarding new capacity in the thermal phosphoric acid industry. While the market outlook for thermal phosphoric acid demand in the new energy sector is expected to remain positive, the traditional seasonal fluctuations in demand from the “Three Chemicals” sector have weakened, leading to a generally cautious market outlook regarding actual demand in September.
Based on a comprehensive analysis, both supply and demand in the yellow phosphorus market in September are likely to be stronger than in August, with the market operating under a balance of supply and demand. Around the middle of the month, driven by downstream restocking ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, prices are expected to rise. On the cost side, taking Yunnan Province as an example, electricity costs in September are expected to see a narrow month-over-month adjustment. Overall, yellow phosphorus prices are projected to follow an “N”-shaped trajectory during the month, with both price volatility and the average price showing an upward trend compared to the previous month.
4. Analysis of the Impact on the Phosphorus-Based Flame Retardant Market
Looking ahead to September, both supply and demand in the yellow phosphorus market are expected to be stronger than in August. Around mid-month, driven by downstream restocking ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, yellow phosphorus prices are expected to rise. For the phosphorus-based flame retardant market:
Cost pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term: Yellow phosphorus prices are expected to follow an “n”-shaped trajectory, with both price volatility and the average price trending upward month-over-month, meaning cost pressures on flame retardant manufacturers will persist
Demand improvements will be limited: The pattern of weak demand in traditional sectors is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed in the short term; while the new energy sector holds positive expectations, its ability to drive demand remains limited
Profit margins remain under pressure: Caught between rising costs and weak demand, profit margins for phosphorus-based flame retardant manufacturers are unlikely to recover effectively.
Overall, the phosphorus-based flame retardant market will continue to face dual pressures from rising costs and weak demand in the short term. Product prices may see modest increases supported by cost pressures, but given the industry’s oversupply situation, the upward movement will be limited. Improvements in corporate profitability will still require a substantive recovery in downstream demand.
