[Yellow Phosphorus & Phosphorus-Containing Intermediates Weekly Review]: High-Price Transmission Stagnant, Market Center of Gravity Declines (May 15-21, 2026)

[Yellow Phosphorus & Phosphorus-Containing Intermediates Weekly Review]: High-Price Transmission Stagnant, Market Center of Gravity Declines (May 15-21, 2026)

1. Market Logic

① The price increase of major downstream products of yellow phosphorus is lower than that of yellow phosphorus itself. Yellow phosphorus prices remain firm, but transmission along the industrial chain is not smooth.

② Power costs have declined, which may boost industry operating rates. Some companies are integrating downstream operations for self-use, which will reduce their actual external sales volume.

2. Weekly Industrial Chain Price Fluctuation Analysis

Table 1 Overview of Yellow Phosphorus and Related Product Prices for the Current Period (Unit: RMB/ton)

This week, the yellow phosphorus market showed some loosening after price-holding efforts. At the beginning of the week, yellow phosphorus companies maintained firm guidance prices, with quotes concentrating around 32,000 RMB/ton, and higher quotes touching 32,400 RMB/ton. Intermediaries were also inclined to sell at high prices. During the week, thermal phosphoric acid and trichloride market prices followed suit, but trading was relatively weak, with upstream and downstream markets in a stalemate. Subsequently, more trading news emerged from intermediaries, negotiations expanded, and the market price center of gravity loosened. The mainstream market price rose from 30,700 RMB/ton acceptance to 31,200 RMB/ton acceptance, then fell back to 30,500 RMB/ton acceptance.

Figure 1 Weekly Market Price Trend of Yellow Phosphorus, 2024-2026 (RMB/ton)

This week, the raw material end of phosphorus trichloride showed volatile movements. Yellow phosphorus market high-price transmission was not smooth, and the market price center of gravity loosened. The Jiangsu liquid chlorine market operated in fluctuations, phosphorus trichloride demand was lukewarm, and market prices followed the rise of yellow phosphorus before holding steady and waiting. As of press time, the mainstream price of phosphorus trichloride in East China (Shandong, Jiangsu) was 8,150 RMB/ton, and phosphorus oxychloride followed raw material price fluctuations with a mainstream reference price of 7,850 RMB/ton, subject to case-by-case negotiation.

Figure 2 Weekly Market Price Trend of East China Phosphorus Trichloride, 2025-2026 (RMB/ton)

Thermal Phosphoric Acid: The thermal phosphoric acid market rose steadily, with prices continuing to edge up slightly. On the production side, mainstream companies maintained stable operating rates with no plans for production cuts or load reductions; some existing facilities resumed production. Raw material yellow phosphorus prices remained firm at high levels, providing strong cost-side support. On the demand side, orders for traditional phosphates followed up limitedly, but new energy sector orders provided sufficient support. Enterprise inventories remained low, and market confidence was relatively solid. In Sichuan, thermal phosphoric acid acceptance ex-factory prices were 9,000-9,300 RMB/ton; in Jiangsu, thermal phosphoric acid purified water acceptance ex-factory prices were 10,090-10,200 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case by case.

Wet-Process Purified Phosphoric Acid: This period, the wet-process purified phosphoric acid market remained firm at high levels, with slight price increases in individual regions. Affected by the dual impact of volatile sulfur prices at high levels and tight raw material supply, production costs continued to be under pressure. Some facilities reduced operating loads, and actual market circulation tightened in phases. On the demand side, iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate enterprises maintained operating rates around 80%, with orderly procurement rhythms. However, constrained by high prices, end customers showed significantly slower acceptance of new orders, and wait-and-see sentiment warmed up. Reference prices: Central China wet-process purified phosphoric acid ex-factory at 9,700 RMB/ton; out-of-region delivered at 9,850-9,900 RMB/ton; Southwest supply delivered to Jiangsu at 10,150 RMB/ton; Shandong purified water delivered at approximately 10,200-10,400 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case by case.

Figure 3 Weekly Market Price Trend of Thermal Phosphoric Acid, 2025-2026 (RMB/ton)

Figure 4 Weekly Market Price Trend of Wet-Process Purified Phosphoric Acid, 2025-2026 (RMB/ton)

3. Market Outlook

Yellow phosphorus company guidance prices remain relatively strong. Intermediary trading is gradually unfolding, market transaction volumes are increasing, and market cargo volumes are beginning to shift downstream. Industrial chain prices are transmitting downstream, and the market price center of gravity is also declining due to in-market negotiations. As of market close, the mainstream price in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan market settled at 30,500 RMB/ton acceptance. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and downstream acceptance at this price level. If market transactions proceed smoothly, market prices may bottom out at 30,000-30,500 RMB/ton acceptance. Thermal phosphoric acid enterprises are holding firm on prices due to tight supply, and the high-price trend of wet-process acid provides price support, also moderately curbing the decline in yellow phosphorus market prices.