Antimony Prices Bottom Out and Stage a V-Shaped Rebound; Market Returns to the 100,000 Mark (July 31–August 7)

Overseas antimony ingot quotes softened this week, with the mainstream trading range shifting downward to $18,000–$20,500 per metric ton, and some low-priced supplies emerging. The “Spanish variable” that had previously caused market concern is gradually fading. The latest customs recalculation data indicates that the so-called imports from Spain may consist of low-grade mixed ore (primarily for sulfur extraction), contributing virtually nothing to antimony feedstock supply. After excluding this distortion, while actual import volumes for the first half of the year remained high, June’s volume fell by nearly half month-over-month, confirming the weakening supply trend. The current overseas market is caught in a structural tug-of-war characterized by “abundant ore supply but constrained antimony oxide production capacity,” with antimony oxide prices outperforming antimony ingots. As domestic prices bottom out and rebound, this is expected to reverse the one-sided downward trend in overseas markets, and prices are likely to gradually stabilize. Moving forward, it will be crucial to closely monitor import and export data from major consuming countries such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe to confirm actual demand.

This week, domestic antimony prices completed a V-shaped bottoming-out and rebound, with No. 1 antimony ingots surging strongly from 90,000 yuan per metric ton to 100,000 yuan per metric ton, while 99.8% antimony oxide rose simultaneously from 80,000 yuan per metric ton to 90,000 yuan per metric ton; the market even saw higher offers. In the early stages of the price rally, a large volume of low-priced inventory was traded. Some of this was absorbed by traders to average down the cost of their earlier high-price stockpiles, while others were purchased by investors who viewed the price dip below the 2024 starting point as a signal to buy the dip and build positions. The significantly higher trading activity compared to previous months has fueled a reluctance among smelters to sell, leading to a sharp decline in low-priced supply, with some manufacturers generally holding onto their inventory in anticipation of further price increases. This rally may have prematurely sparked market expectations for stockpiling ahead of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season. However, given that downstream inventories have reached low levels following a six-month deep correction in antimony prices, the current restocking effort is substantial. Furthermore, since both bromine and antimony are highly volatile commodities, support from the cost line has further reinforced the certainty of restocking. However, the extent of the price increase still depends on the degree to which raw material imports weaken in the second half of the year. 

Currently, domestic exports have not yet fully recovered, and overseas raw materials—aside from those flowing into China—primarily supply local demand. Meanwhile, overseas antimony oxide production capacity is causing disruptions in the supply chain. If additional overseas antimony oxide capacity is released in the future, it will increase local consumption of raw materials, thereby reducing the availability of low-priced raw materials entering the domestic market. This variable, together with domestic demand and cost pressures, constitutes the core drivers of antimony prices. In the short term, given that smelters are generally facing the pressure of cost inversion between “purchased raw materials and finished products,” their willingness to support prices is more unified than ever. It is expected that, driven by the combined effects of cost support and peak-season expectations, the probability of prices falling below 90,000 yuan per metric ton is low. Prices are highly likely to stabilize at 100,000 yuan per metric ton and remain firm. Even if demand falls short of expectations, prices will find strong support within the 90,000–100,000 yuan per metric ton range, exhibiting a pattern of consolidation and stabilization. and with strong bullish momentum, prices may continue to break through resistance levels.

II. Highlights from Overseas Antimony Trade

In June 2026, Thailand’s antimony product trade exhibited a typical industrial chain pattern characterized by “high reliance on Myanmar for raw materials, value-added exports of antimony ingots to developed economies, and nearly all antimony oxide shipments destined for the United States”: On the raw material side, imports were dominated by Myanmar (4,924 metric tons, CIF approximately $3,022/metric ton), followed by Cameroon (901 metric tons). Exports were primarily destined for China (2,192 metric tons) and re-exported to Myanmar (1,279 metric tons). Looking at the trend from January to June, average raw material imports stood at 7,704 metric metric tons with significant volatility (ranging from 5,290 to 12,817 metric metric tons). In June, imports rebounded by 12.2% month-over-month to 5,934 metric metric tons but remained at a low level, while exports continued to decline, shrinking from 9,574 metric metric tons in January to 3,727 metric metric tons in June (a 26.8% month-over-month drop, hitting a six-month low) ; antimony ingot volumes saw explosive growth, with imports reaching 1,405 metric tons (a 173.1% month-over-month surge, marking a six-month high), primarily sourced from Vietnam (707 metric tons), Myanmar (223 metric tons), and Hong Kong (212 metric tons). Exports totaled 689 metric tons (up 132.1% month-over-month, the second-highest level), mainly destined for Belgium (501 metric tons), South Korea (102 metric tons), and Japan (61 metric tons). Export unit prices (US$22,203–30,665 per metric ton) were generally higher than import costs—particularly to Indonesia, where they reached as high as US$30,665 per metric ton—demonstrating a significant value-added effect from processing; In the antimony oxide sector, import volumes were relatively small and sources were dispersed (primarily 90 metric tons from China and 18 metric tons from Japan); in June, imports reached 116.6 metric tons, a 109.6% month-over-month increase and the highest level in six months. Exports, however, were highly concentrated, with nearly the entire 380 metric tons shipped to the United States (FOB approximately $22,040 per metric ton, with only 3 metric tons going to Turkey), marking a 16.1% month-over-month increase. Although this represents a significant pullback from the abnormal spike in April (1,002 metric tons), the overall performance remains robust; these data changes may suggest a recovery in the smelting sector, with Thailand’s role as a regional transshipment hub gradually weakening as more resources are directed toward domestic deep processing.

Quarterly export data from Chinese and Thai customs authorities, as well as from Tajikistan, and monthly data from Japan, South Korea, the U.S., and France have been updated. The volume of raw material flows through Thailand is increasingly worthy of attention. The emergence of smelters in various regions, changes in the volume of traded antimony products, and shifts in the number of countries that were previously major export destinations for China all provide indirect insights into certain trends.

III. Analysis of Selected Downstream Sectors

In the photovoltaic glass sector, according to Longzhong, as of this Thursday, the national daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass stood at 71,365 metric tons. The market is characterized by “uniform price hikes, a stalemate in transaction negotiations, passive inventory buildup, and a narrowing of losses compared to the previous month.” On the module side, acceptance varies due to profit pressures, and end-of-month settlements remain to be seen; on the supply side, there are currently no new cold repairs, and one overseas production line is expected to come online in August; On the demand side, module prices remained weak but stable; neither end-user bulk procurement nor distributed projects saw significant volume growth; low-priced modules disrupted the market, leading to a slowdown in procurement. The earlier production cuts prompted manufacturers to attempt to prop up prices, but this failed to result in inventory drawdowns. The primary cause of inventory buildup was the stalemate in price negotiations between upstream and downstream players, compounded by the customary weakening of shipments at the beginning of the month. In terms of profitability, while cost concessions on raw materials such as soda ash and price hikes provided some relief, the industry as a whole remains in the red, and operational pressures persist. In the short term, whether prices can stabilize at 9.5 yuan/square meter depends on the pace at which leading manufacturers actually implement their second round of production cuts and the intensity of module restocking in mid-to-late August. If production cuts are weakly enforced, price hikes may amount to nothing more than empty rhetoric; with inventories at high levels, prices will continue to fluctuate near the cost line. The key variables for the second half of the year are the seasonal recovery in domestic installations and whether export orders can absorb excess capacity.

In the bromine sector, according to Longzhong, as of this Thursday, the market continued its strong, one-sided upward trend, with mainstream transaction prices in Shandong jumping by 3,000 yuan/metric ton to 36,500 yuan/metric ton (up 8.96% week-on-week). Bullish sentiment is intense, with some manufacturers even hoarding inventory in anticipation of prices reaching 40,000 yuan/metric ton. The core driver of this price rally stems from continued tightening on the supply side: persistent rainfall in major production areas has diluted brine concentrations, keeping the industry’s operating rate stuck at a low of 50.46%. Combined with reports of delayed arrivals of imported shipments, this has led to extremely tight spot market supply, with manufacturers generally holding low inventories to prop up prices and reluctant to sell; Although high and volatile sulfur prices on the cost side provide support at the bottom, the demand side remains in the traditional off-season. Downstream production of bromine-based flame retardants and pesticide and pharmaceutical intermediates is sluggish; faced with high prices, buyers are only making sporadic restocking purchases to meet essential needs, and resistance to high prices is mounting, intensifying the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players. In the short term, if weather conditions in the main production areas do not improve and the logic behind the import delays is not disproven, the tight supply situation will support prices to remain firm or even push toward the 40,000 yuan/metric ton threshold. However, without a substantial recovery in demand, the market lacks the momentum for concentrated restocking, limiting the scope for further price increases. Prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels within the 37,500–40,000 yuan/metric ton range. Market participants should be wary of the risk of a temporary correction triggered by difficulties in closing deals at high prices. Going forward, key factors to monitor include weather changes, the pace of import arrivals, and the smoothness of cost pass-through to downstream sectors.

IV. Impact on and Implications for the Downstream Flame Retardant Industry

The V-shaped reversal in antimony prices is shifting its impact on the downstream flame retardant industry from the “cost side” to the “strategy side.”

Cost Side: Prices for antimony trioxide have followed suit, and cost pressures for flame retardants are rising again. This week, the price of 99.8% antimony trioxide has risen from 80,000 yuan per metric ton to 90,000 yuan per metric ton. As a key synergist for brominated flame retardants, the price trend of antimony trioxide is highly correlated with that of antimony. For flame retardant manufacturers—who primarily use brominated-antimony systems—as well as downstream modified plastics and cable compound manufacturers, raw material costs will face upward pressure of 5–10% in the short term.

Supply Side: Low-priced inventory has been largely cleared, and the window for restocking is narrowing. The initial phase of this price rebound was accompanied by a large volume of transactions involving bottom-priced inventory; some of this was absorbed by traders, while the rest was acquired by investors looking to build positions at rock-bottom prices. Refineries are becoming increasingly reluctant to sell, leading to a sharp decline in low-priced inventory. This means that downstream users who had previously adopted a wait-and-see approach—if they have not yet completed their low-price stockpiling—may have already missed the price bottom of this cycle.

Strategy Recommendations:

Users who have already stocked up—Remain cautious and monitor price fluctuations within the 95,000–100,000 yuan/metric ton range. If prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan, consider making moderate additional purchases.

Users who have not yet stocked up—Current prices have moved away from the bottom; it is recommended to purchase primarily based on demand and avoid chasing high prices. Keep an eye on upcoming data regarding overseas raw material imports and the recovery of domestic exports. If prices pull back below 95,000 yuan/metric ton, this can be viewed as an opportunity to replenish inventory.

Long-Term Perspective—As a strategic minor metal, antimony is characterized by highly cyclical price fluctuations. For flame retardant users, rather than passively following antimony price fluctuations, it is advisable to proactively evaluate the long-term value of antimony-free flame retardant solutions (such as Yinshu  composite antimony substitute FR-03 and magnesium-aluminum layered flame retardant FR-ML-01) in terms of cost stability and supply chain security.