Export Ban + Losses + Essential Demand: Antimony Caught in A Game of Multiple Forces (Sept. 4–11)

I. Market Overview

This week, overseas quotes for No. 2 antimony ingots rose slightly, with the mainstream trading range remaining between $18,300 and $19,000 per metric ton—a modest increase of $300 per metric ton—as demand continued to be the dominant factor. During the week, Zimbabwe announced an immediate ban on antimony and tungsten exports, aligning with African nations such as Guinea, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with the aim of deriving greater economic benefits from their domestic natural resources; Since some antimony deposits in Africa are associated with gold and the adoption of gold-antimony smelting technology remains limited, data indicates that the direct impact of this ban on domestic raw material supply is limited—at the level of about 100 metric tons of metal—representing a small proportion of the total. However, we must remain vigilant against the potential spread of such policies, which could extend to other major antimony-producing countries such as Myanmar, Australia, and Bolivia. Additionally, as Myanmar’s rainy season draws to a close, attention should be focused on the pace at which additional raw materials from Myanmar’s mining sector will be released.

This week, domestic antimony prices were influenced by a complex interplay of factors: expectations of reduced supply due to tightening overseas policies, coupled with loss pressures faced by domestic and international ore purchasers as well as traders who had stockpiled earlier; on the demand side, although the market is in the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” and approaching the pre-holiday restocking window, end-users are under significant pressure due to rising costs of raw materials such as plastics driven by higher international crude oil prices, with actual purchases remaining limited to essential needs. Amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, market volatility has narrowed, with industry players showing a strong inclination to stockpile and adopt a wait-and-see attitude, preventing a clear market direction from emerging. In terms of price performance, quotes for No. 1 antimony ingots showed significant divergence, with high-end prices reaching 114,000 yuan per metric ton and some low-end prices just over 100,000 yuan, resulting in a wide price spread; In contrast, the price range for antimony trioxide was relatively concentrated, holding steady between 90,000 and 95,000 yuan per metric ton. The current market is characterized by a stalemate where “refineries are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers resist high prices,” making it difficult for prices to move significantly in either direction. It is expected that the market’s supply-demand dynamics will not see major changes next week; close attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restocking in mid-September and the realization of peak-season demand.

II. Highlights of Overseas Antimony Trade

In July 2026, Thailand’s trade in antimony products saw imports of antimony raw materials reach 3,510.63 metric tons (a cumulative total of 49,732.69 metric tons for January–July), primarily from Myanmar (3,369.93 metric tons); Exports of antimony raw materials totaled 2,218.93 metric tons (cumulative total for January–July: 49,065.04 metric tons), a significant decline from the previous period, with the main destinations being Myanmar (1,794.583 metric tons), Laos, and India. On the finished products side, imports of antimony ingots totaled 1,122.74 metric tons (cumulative total for January–July: 5,326.36 metric tons), with Vietnam (693.027 metric tons) and Myanmar (299.339 metric tons) as the main source countries; Exports of antimony ingots totaled 388.73 metric tons (3,598.74 metric tons cumulatively from January through July), with Belgium (299.365 metric tons) being the primary destination. The scale of antimony oxide imports and exports was relatively small, with 42.44 metric tons imported in July (cumulative total of 498.77 metric tons for January–July) and 383.00 metric tons exported (cumulative total of 3,200.03 metric tons for January–July). Antimony oxide exports were highly concentrated, with the United States alone accounting for 320 metric tons in a single month.

III. Analysis of Selected Downstream Sectors

In the photovoltaic glass sector, according to Longzhong, as of this Thursday, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass nationwide stood at 67,995 metric tons. The overall market is characterized by “testing of new prices, a slight decline in supply, weak demand, accumulating inventory, and continued losses.” Prices are negotiated on a case-by-case basis due to the relatively loose actual supply-demand balance, but new orders are scarce, with companies prioritizing the clearance of existing inventory and showing little willingness to proactively restock; One production line underwent a cold repair this week, with another expected next week. While the coordinated cold repairs have fueled expectations of a price recovery, some companies have taken advantage of the situation to increase output by easing kiln output limits to alleviate operational and cost pressures, thereby diminishing the actual impact of the production cuts; Domestic centralized tenders provide a floor but the awarding process is slow; distributed projects remain lackluster; for exports, while orders exist in some overseas regions, enthusiasm for stockpiling has cooled. Leading manufacturers maintain firm quotes, while small and medium-sized plants offer discounts to win orders. New order growth is limited, and module production remains at low levels. Key factors to watch for the outlook include the timing of cold repairs for the remaining production lines in the joint production cuts, the pace of resuming production after kiln closures, and the drawdown of glass inventory on the module side. If production cuts are further implemented and inventory of older modules falls to reasonable levels, glass inventory is expected to decline slightly, though the extent will be limited, and the tug-of-war within the supply chain will continue.

In the bromine sector, according to Longzhong, as of this Thursday, low market inventories have provided a floor, driven by solid demand, and prices have remained stable with a slight upward trend. The mainstream domestic transaction price for bromine has risen to 37,000–37,500 yuan per metric ton; low-priced supplies are gradually disappearing, and suppliers are reluctant to sell. On the supply side, although weather conditions have improved in major production areas, the bromine concentration in brine remains relatively low. As a result, it is difficult for the industry’s operating rates to increase significantly. Producers generally maintain low inventory levels, and spot cargo supplies in the market are tight. Coupled with high and volatile prices for raw materials such as sulfur, a sentiment of price support and optimism has reemerged among manufacturers; On the demand side, the downstream market has shown slight signs of recovery, with essential restocking of bromine-based flame retardants. However, transactions are primarily small, demand-driven orders, with no concentrated stockpiling activities. Acceptance of high prices remains limited, and resistance is evident, significantly restricting upward price momentum. Overall, low inventories, essential procurement, and high raw material costs collectively form a floor of support; however, insufficient follow-through from end-user demand is suppressing price gains, and the stalemate between supply and demand persists. Looking ahead, brine conditions in major production areas are unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Operating rates and low inventory levels are expected to persist, and raw material costs will continue to provide support. Coupled with the approaching pre-holiday stockpiling period in the downstream sector and the continued presence of essential demand, bromine prices still have room to rise. Overall, prices are likely to stabilize and rise slightly, with no major fluctuations expected. Moving forward, it will be necessary to continue monitoring changes in production levels in key regions, the arrival of imported shipments, and the status of downstream orders.

IV. Daily Sales and Inventory Data for Zhonglian Jinguo

V. Conclusion: The Flame Retardant Industry Amid Stagnant Antimony Prices—Cost Pressures Persist, While Opportunities for Substitution Continue to Emerge

This week, the antimony market has been characterized by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, marked by “disruptions in overseas supply, diverging domestic prices, and weak downstream demand.” Zimbabwe’s announcement of a ban on antimony and tungsten exports signals an emerging trend of tighter policies among African resource-rich countries, though the short-term impact on domestic raw material supply remains limited. Domestic quotes for No. 1 antimony ingots showed significant divergence, with high-end prices reaching 114,000 yuan per metric ton while low-end prices remained just over 100,000 yuan; antimony trioxide prices were relatively concentrated, holding steady in the 90,000–95,000 yuan per metric ton range. With smelters reluctant to sell and downstream buyers resistant to higher prices, the market as a whole found itself caught between rising and falling prices.

For the flame retardant industry, the stalemate in antimony prices means that cost pressures have not substantively eased. As a key synergist in bromine-based flame retardants, the high price of antimony trioxide directly drives up the formulation costs of bromine-antimony system flame retardants. At the same time, bromine prices have risen in tandem to 37,000–37,500 yuan per metric ton, further intensifying cost pressures for bromine-based flame retardants. Downstream manufacturers of bromine-based flame retardants are limiting purchases to small orders for essential needs only, showing clear reluctance toward high-priced raw materials.

This situation is accelerating downstream users’ evaluation of antimony-free and low-antimony solutions. Yinsu Flame Retardants’ composite antimony substitute FR-03 can fully replace antimony trioxide (ATO), offering comparable flame-retardant performance while reducing costs by 30%–40%; the magnesium-aluminum layered flame retardant HAM-300V, at a ratio of 40 parts equivalent to 5 parts ATO, significantly reduces smoke density. Against the backdrop of persistently high antimony prices and frequent disruptions caused by export bans, proactively planning for alternative solutions is driven not only by cost considerations but also by the need for supply chain security.

Looking ahead to next week, the supply-demand dynamics in the antimony market are unlikely to see significant changes. Key attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restocking in mid- to late September and the realization of peak-season demand. If there is no noticeable recovery on the demand side, antimony prices will likely remain in their current stalemate, and cost pressures in the flame retardant industry will persist.