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Views: 32 Author: Yinsu Flame Retardant Publish Time: 2026-11-02 Origin: www.flameretardantys.com
[Monthly Review of Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphorus-Containing Intermediates]:
Prices Followed an “Up-Then-Down” Trend During the Month (October 2026)
1. This Month's Highlights
During the month, companies in the major production regions of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan suspended or reduced production. In particular, supply in the Guizhou region declined significantly in the middle and latter parts of the month, leading to a temporary tightness in the spot market.
October marked the transition from the wet season to the normal water level season, while electricity costs rose slightly month-over-month.
On the demand side, both operating rates and prices for thermally processed phosphoric acid remained weak, as did operating rates, volumes, and prices in the tri-chemical market.
2. Analysis of Price Fluctuations in the Industry Chain This Month
Table 1: Summary of Upstream and Downstream Prices for Yellow Phosphorus in China (Unit: yuan/metric ton)
In October, the average monthly price of yellow phosphorus in the Southwest region was 27,735 yuan per metric ton, up 2% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year; Given that yellow phosphorus producers actively pre-sold and secured orders before the National Day holiday, they generally faced significant sales pressure after the holiday. Although the market opened with strong recommended prices and a bullish trading sentiment, downstream market demand remained sluggish. As a result, the firm yellow phosphorus prices failed to be effectively passed on to downstream buyers, and after a period of stalemate and wait-and-see attitude, prices eventually trended downward in line with market conditions.
Before the National Day holiday, yellow phosphorus producers actively pre-sold inventory scheduled for production during the holiday period. After the holiday, however, producers generally struggled to sustain sales pressure. Although prices and market sentiment remained relatively firm—with the mainstream price in Yunnan rising to 28,000 yuan per metric ton (accepted bill)—downstream buyers showed little willingness to place orders once prices reached these highs, and sellers of high-priced inventory also faced resistance in moving their stock. While moderate trading based on essential demand continued in the market, supply in the Guizhou region decreased. Although some enterprises had ample overall orders and market prices remained firm, the demand side found it difficult to accept the high prices of yellow phosphorus. After a period of stalemate, market prices came under pressure and weakened, with the price center in the Yunnan region adjusting downward to 27,700–27,900 yuan/metric ton. Driven by a “buy on the rise, not on the fall” mentality, downstream buyers pressed for lower prices, adopted a wait-and-see approach, and placed orders only as needed. The downward trend in the sulfur market also exerted some pressure on yellow phosphorus. In the middle to late part of the month, supply from the Guizhou region decreased, and the price range in Yunnan shifted downward to the 27,500–27,600 yuan/metric ton range. Demand remained reasonably strong, while yellow phosphorus producers held firm at this price level and supported the market.
Figure 1: Monthly Price Trend Chart for the Yellow Phosphorus Market, 2025–2026 (yuan/metric ton)
Regarding phosphorus trichloride prices in October, the market price of yellow phosphorus followed an upward-then-downward trend during the month. In the liquid chlorine market—taking Jiangsu’s liquid chlorine prices as an example—prices showed a volatile but generally firm trend. The recommended prices and market prices of phosphorus trichloride producers closely tracked the comprehensive raw material costs; however, upstream suppliers temporarily exerted cost pressure on manufacturers during the month, prompting some major phosphorus trichloride producers to cut production as a risk-mitigation measure. Overall demand remained relatively weak, with actual transactions in the market characterized by price-cutting and competitive bidding, and both volume and prices showing weakness. During the month, the price range for phosphorus trichloride in Jiangsu was 7,150–7,300 yuan/metric ton, while the price range for phosphorus oxychloride was generally 6,800–6,900 yuan/metric ton.
Figure 2: Monthly Price Trend Chart for the Phosphorus Trichloride Market, 2025–2026 (yuan/metric ton)
Wet-Process Purified Phosphoric Acid: In October, the market for wet-process purified phosphoric acid generally showed a pattern of weakness early in the month followed by stability, with prices consolidating within a narrow range. Market activity was subdued at the beginning of the month, with production and sales under pressure; however, as the month progressed into the middle and late stages, the product’s cost-effectiveness gradually became apparent. In some regions, prices were even lower than those of thermally produced phosphoric acid, leading to significant substitution in the thermal market and driving a modest increase in orders. From a supply-and-demand perspective, operating rates in the downstream new energy sector remained high, and some orders were gradually released; however, large orders generally came with negotiated discounts, limiting the acceleration of procurement. On the cost side, phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels, and while sulfur prices dipped occasionally, they generally stayed elevated, providing continued cost support. Overall, limited demand growth clashed with high-cost support, restricting manufacturers’ room for price adjustments and resulting in a market characterized primarily by weakness and stability.
Thermal Phosphoric Acid: Throughout the month, thermal phosphoric acid faced the dual pressures of high costs and weak demand. At the beginning of the month, driven by rising prices of raw material yellow phosphorus, manufacturers were less willing to sell at low prices, leading to firm quotes and a stalemate; however, in the middle and latter parts of the month, although yellow phosphorus prices edged down slightly, they remained at high levels, making it difficult to alleviate cost pressures. On the demand side, the market faced a double blow: on the one hand, operating rates at traditional downstream facilities remained at medium-to-low levels, slowing the pace of consumption driven by essential needs; on the other hand, orders in the new energy sector were largely displaced by wet-process phosphoric acid, which holds a cost advantage. Caught between weak demand and high costs, some small manufacturers were forced to undergo maintenance, leaving companies in a difficult position. Due to a lack of new orders, market activity cooled, and the scope for price adjustments was extremely limited, resulting in a narrow range of downward pressure throughout the month.
Figure 3: 2026 Phosphoric Acid Market Price Trend Chart (Yuan/metric ton)
3. Market Outlook
Regarding electricity costs in the yellow phosphorus industry in November, it is reported that an upward adjustment may be expected. Attention should be paid to the specific magnitude of the increase and its impact on yellow phosphorus price trends from a cost perspective. For now, the industry is expected to continue trading profitably, and companies may generally favor maintaining stable production schedules. It is advisable to monitor the subsequent operational developments of enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou that have suspended or restricted production; Demand for thermally produced phosphoric acid remains weak, and given the cost pressures experienced in October, it is expected that in November, thermally produced phosphoric acid manufacturers will primarily source yellow phosphorus on an as-needed basis. Players in the triphosphate industry lack confidence in their own future demand and may continue to adjust prices and negotiate based on overall costs. If demand remains sluggish and profit margins remain under pressure, some enterprises may reduce production to mitigate risks, and raw material procurement will also be conducted cautiously and on an as-needed basis.
On the demand side, both the thermal phosphoric acid and tri-chemical industries hold relatively weak expectations for future demand, which will weigh on actual demand in the November yellow phosphorus market. Actual procurement is also likely to involve price-pressuring and be conducted on an as-needed basis, thereby constraining the price center and overall trend of yellow phosphorus in November. On the supply side, continued attention should be paid to the operational trends of yellow phosphorus enterprises in the major production regions of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, as well as their impact on the actual trading sentiment and pricing strategies of these enterprises.
Based on a comprehensive analysis, the supply-demand dynamics in the November yellow phosphorus market will continue to be in a state of equilibrium. Given the relatively weak demand outlook, it cannot be ruled out that yellow phosphorus prices may experience downward movements during the month; the specific magnitude of these fluctuations will depend on actual market negotiations. It is also possible that yellow phosphorus producers may set minimum transaction prices to safeguard their profitability.
4. Impact on and Forecast for the Downstream Phosphorus-Based Flame Retardant Market
As the core raw material for phosphorus-based flame retardants (such as red phosphorus masterbatch, ammonium polyphosphate (APP), and organic phosphorus flame retardants), the high price of yellow phosphorus directly determines the cost floor for the flame retardant market.
Cost Side: The price floor for phosphorus-based flame retardants remains firm
In October, the average price of yellow phosphorus in the Southwest region surged by 27% year-over-year. Although yellow phosphorus prices came under pressure and weakened in the middle to late part of the month, they remained at a high level above 27,000 yuan per metric ton overall. As a result, production costs for red phosphorus flame retardants and ammonium polyphosphate (APP) remain high. Despite sluggish demand from downstream industries such as modified plastics and cables—which has squeezed manufacturers’ profits from both ends—phosphorus-based flame retardant prices are more likely to rise than fall in the short term, supported by high raw material costs.
Supply and Demand: Supply Contraction and Substitution Effects Coexist
During the month, yellow phosphorus supply in the Guizhou region decreased significantly, which may lead to tight spot supply of high-quality coated red phosphorus and other niche products in the future. At the same time, the weakness of thermally produced phosphoric acid and its substitution by wet-process acid have forced flame retardant manufacturers to accelerate process adjustments when selecting phosphorus sources. Furthermore, due to the high price of yellow phosphorus, downstream cable and engineering plastics manufacturers are facing immense pressure to reduce costs. This may prompt some end-users to accelerate their evaluation of halogen-free flame retardants (such as phosphorus-nitrogen composite systems) or high-efficiency, low-dosage flame retardant solutions (such as high-concentration red phosphorus masterbatches) to hedge against the cost risks associated with reliance on a single raw material.
November Market Forecast:
Given the supply-demand dynamics for yellow phosphorus and expectations of weak demand, yellow phosphorus prices may decline in November; however, the decline will be limited due to anticipated increases in electricity costs and manufacturers' efforts to maintain profitability. In the downstream flame retardant market, phosphorus-based flame retardants are expected to remain at high levels with narrow fluctuations throughout November. Flame retardant manufacturers will continue to reduce costs by controlling operating rates and optimizing formulations. Downstream buyers are advised to monitor production trends at major yellow phosphorus manufacturers, stock up moderately when prices dip, and actively incorporate high-concentration, high-efficiency flame retardant masterbatches to lower overall costs.
Appendix: Recommendations for Optimizing Downstream Flame Retardant Formulations
Faced with cost pressures from yellow phosphorus, downstream manufacturers can adopt the following strategies:
Replace lower-grade with higher-grade: In dark-colored cables or injection-molded parts, use high-concentration red phosphorus masterbatches (e.g., FRP-950X, 3–5% addition) to partially replace expensive APP or highly filled hydroxides. This not only reduces the total cost of flame retardants but also restores the mechanical toughness of PE/PA.
Reduce filler interference: Reduce the amount of non-flame-retardant fillers, such as calcium carbonate, in the formulation to avoid inadvertently diluting the flame retardant and incurring unnecessary costs.
Synergistic blending: Adopt a blending approach that leverages phosphorus-nitrogen synergy or a combination of red phosphorus and MDH to reduce the addition of a single, high-cost flame retardant through synergistic effects.
