Weekly Report on Yellow Phosphorus (May 1–7, 2026)

Weekly Report on Yellow Phosphorus (May 1–7, 2026)

1. Market Dynamics

① Major yellow phosphorus producers have secured orders, and the market continues to be bullish. Post-holiday demand has been satisfactory, supporting a steady upward trend in prices.

② A decline in electricity costs may boost industry operating rates. Some companies are using the product for their own downstream operations, which will reduce their actual sales volume.

2. Analysis of Price Fluctuations in the Industry Chain This Week

Table 1: Current Prices of Yellow Phosphorus and Related Products (Unit: RMB/ton)

This week, the yellow phosphorus market has shown a relatively strong trend. Before the May Day holiday, the market already exhibited a sentiment of price hikes, which drove transactions. Although companies built up inventories during the holiday, existing orders and the post-holiday atmosphere of price increases have boosted market trading. Companies are holding back on sales, watching the market, and waiting for prices to rise. In the Yunnan market, the mainstream price rose from 27,500 yuan/ton (bank acceptance) before the holiday to 29,000 yuan/ton (bank acceptance), an increase of 5.45%. As prices reached high levels and buyers gradually built up inventories, a wait-and-see sentiment emerged at these elevated levels. Trading volumes have contracted somewhat compared to the beginning of the post-holiday period, and some mainstream yellow phosphorus manufacturers’ high-priced bids failed to attract buyers, leading to a slightly cautious outlook for the market.

This week, the raw material side of the phosphorus trichloride market has seen some support. Following the post-holiday surge in both volume and price of yellow phosphorus, high-price transactions have faced resistance. While the market price of liquid chlorine has risen slightly, demand for phosphorus trichloride has been lackluster, and market sentiment remains somewhat subdued. As of this writing, the mainstream price range for phosphorus trichloride in the East China, Shandong, and Jiangsu markets is 7,400–7,700 yuan per ton. Phosphorus oxychloride prices have fluctuated in line with raw material prices, with mainstream prices ranging from 6,900 to 7,300 yuan per ton, subject to negotiation on a case-by-case basis.

Thermal Phosphoric Acid: Prices for thermal phosphoric acid remained firm during this period, with major producers maintaining stable quotes and the earlier supply of low-priced regional products disappearing. Manufacturers are prioritizing the fulfillment of existing orders and adopting a cautious approach toward new orders. Downstream buyers, increasingly cost-sensitive, show low willingness to accept new orders at higher prices. With significant increases in yellow phosphorus prices, production costs for thermal phosphoric acid remain high, supporting a stable-to-strong market sentiment. Meanwhile, the supply of wet-process purified phosphoric acid remains tight. Benefiting from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production capacity operating at high utilization rates, this creates a firm demand floor for thermal phosphoric acid. As a reference, the ex-factory price for thermal-process purified phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 8,500–8,600 yuan/ton (accepted by bank acceptance), with some low-price transactions at 8,400 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, the ex-factory price is 9,050–9,350 yuan/ton (accepted by bank acceptance), with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. For more details, please refer to the Longzhong Information Weekly Phosphoric Acid Report.

Wet-process purified phosphoric acid: Prices for wet-process purified phosphoric acid remained firm this period. Constrained by both high and volatile sulfur prices and tight raw material supplies, production costs for manufacturers continued to face pressure, limiting capacity utilization and causing a temporary contraction in actual market supply. On the demand side, operating rates for ferric phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have stabilized at around 80%, with procurement proceeding in an orderly manner. However, due to high prices, end-users’ willingness to accept new orders has noticeably weakened. Additionally, market rumors suggest that an export quota system may be implemented for industrial-grade phosphoric acid. Although this has not yet been finalized, it has already triggered anticipatory adjustments in the supply chain; the subsequent impact awaits policy clarification and market validation. As a reference, wet-process purified phosphoric acid from Central China is trading at 8,900 yuan/ton; out-of-region supplies are quoted at 9,000 yuan/ton delivered; supplies from Southwest China are arriving in Jiangsu at 9,100–9,200 yuan/ton; and purified phosphoric acid from Shandong is arriving at approximately 9,250–9,300 yuan/ton. Actual transaction prices are subject to negotiation. For more details, please refer to the Longzhong Information Weekly Phosphoric Acid Report.

3. Market Outlook  

The yellow phosphorus market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode at current high levels next week. Although companies built up inventories during the May Day holiday, post-holiday restocking demand has followed suit. With existing orders on hand, companies may maintain high pricing strategies; however, the failure of high-priced bids by major yellow phosphorus producers this week has created resistance to further price increases. Based on recent purchasing activity, the market is expected to return to a rhythm driven by essential demand next week. In summary, the price center of the yellow phosphorus market next week is likely to hover around 29,000 yuan per ton (bank acceptance).

Downstream Phosphorus-Based Flame Retardants: Cost Pressures Persist  

This week, the average price of yellow phosphorus rose to around 28,700 yuan per ton, marking a weekly increase of over 5.8%, though transactions at higher price levels have already encountered resistance. Supported by cost factors, the downside potential for phosphorus-based flame retardants (such as red phosphorus masterbatch, APP, ADP, etc.) is limited in the short term, and some manufacturers have already begun to raise their quotes slightly. For downstream flame-retardant modification enterprises, we recommend closely monitoring the trends of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid, maintaining appropriate inventory levels, and accelerating the optimization of halogen-free synergistic compounding formulations to hedge against raw material price volatility risks.